Review - Preparing for the Twenty-First Century.
By Paul Kennedy
This is a solid overview of the economic, social and political forces that are shaping the world into the 21st century. Kennedy presents a good discussion of the changes that are affecting the world, and the challenges that humankind will have to deal with to survive.
The general trends that he lays out include the demographic explosion, the rise of information technology that is driving a communications and financial revolution, biotechnology, robotics and dangers to the environment.
As with many recent commentators, Kennedy points out the ever-increasing gaps between wealthy and poor nations, and posits that "... the most important influence on a nation's responsiveness to change probably is its social attitudes, religious beliefs, and culture."
While not shying away from the huge problems we face, Kennedy believes people and nations can choose to respond positively to change, however that requires the adoption of "... a market economy, at least to the extent that merchants and entrepreneurs are not discriminated against, deterred, and preyed upon; the abscence of rigid, doctrinal orthodoxy; the freedom to inquire, to dispute, to experiment; a belief in the possibilities of improvement; a concern for the practical rather than the abstract; a rationalism that defies mandarin codes, religious dogma, and traditional folklore."
The question is whether or not our political and social structures can adapt quickly enough to keep a handle on the massive changes going on around us.
"It is inconcievable that the earth can sustain a population of 10 billion people devouring resources at the rate enjoyed by richer societies today -- or at even half that rate. Well before total world population reaches that level, irreparable damage to forests, water supplies, and animal and plant species will have occurred, and many environmental thresholds may have been breached."
Can we run fast enough to stay in place?
Posted by Paul at July 3, 2005 06:32 PM